General note: I’m trying to move my blog here from my wordpress page. I’ll probably copy my old posts over eventually so that it’s all here in the history. This post is a review of my predictions for the 2022 ACX prediction contest. My overall score seems okay given the level of the competition and that this was my first real try at this. My calibration seems mostly good, but maybe a bit overconfident (although the overconfidence on the lest implies I'm giving 50% odds in places where I should be giving 30% odds, so it might be a form of underconfidence - maybe it means I should be more willing to give low odds when both me and Scott are around 50%).
2022 Prediction contest performance self-review.
2022 Prediction contest performance…
2022 Prediction contest performance self-review.
General note: I’m trying to move my blog here from my wordpress page. I’ll probably copy my old posts over eventually so that it’s all here in the history. This post is a review of my predictions for the 2022 ACX prediction contest. My overall score seems okay given the level of the competition and that this was my first real try at this. My calibration seems mostly good, but maybe a bit overconfident (although the overconfidence on the lest implies I'm giving 50% odds in places where I should be giving 30% odds, so it might be a form of underconfidence - maybe it means I should be more willing to give low odds when both me and Scott are around 50%).